India’s Telecom Space – A Case Of Lofty Targets & Inflated Numbers?
There are targets and then there are targets! Some targets make you smile and some targets make you wonder. Now dont get me wrong.. I may be sarcastic and a cynic sometimes but by and large I feel very bullish about the Telecom space in India. But it pains me when I see a larger than life picture being painted about the space.
It pains me when I see Internet penetration numbers being inflated and multiple numbers floating in the market only to add to the confusion. Infact offlate a lot of people have been stating that the 500 million odd mobile subscribers are infact inflated due to dual sims and unutilized sim cards.
Now it seems even 3G is starting to have lofty targets and claims. BSNL Punjab Telecom Circle Chief General Manager P K Paliwal has said “I think acceptance will increase exponentially when the services are available across the state.We expect to add 95,000 3G customers by March 2010.”
Now this consider this: BSNL has been able to garner only 5000 3G subscribers since its launch some months back and this is after posing Deepika Padukone all over television. Yes the roll out has still not taken place all over punjab but then nor has the adoption kicked off in a big way either.
Consider these projections for 3G in India
- Ficci estimates 3G to have 89.9 Million Subscribers by 2013
- Evalueserve estimates 3G to have 275 million subscribers by 2013
- Another report pegs it to be 230 million by 2013
As the disparity in the numbers above shows I dont think even research agencies have clue as to how 3G is going to pan out in India. Looking at all this I can say that it would be great if the telecom players and research agencies alike would stick to a conservative number as many businesses are investing a lot of funds based on their projections and lofty targets and inflated numbers cause a boom that will surely go bust in due course of time.
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