The pesky 3G scenario in India is long evident from the minuscule 3G subscriber count for Public Telcos – MTNL & BSNL. Their current subscriber count stands at mere 1000 & 5000 subscribers respectively and MTNL is even trying to give away 3G services on franchise basis.
A recent study by Evalueserve could provide respite to gloomier 3G situation as it predicts that there would be 275 million 3G subscribers in India by year 2013. The report also goes on to predict that number of 3G handsets would reach 395 million by that year.
Major findings of the report:-
On 3G Subscriber demographics:
- The urban (above poverty line) segment will account for about 80 per cent of the 3G subscriber base by 2013.
- The demand for regional content like video clips, mobile comic strips and mobile magazines is expected to surge in the rural segment post-2012.
On 3G handsets:
- The number of 3G handset users is already above 20 million even through 3G is still to be largely made available.
- By 2013, 3G handsets will account for over 40 per cent of the mobile handset base in India.
- Total number of 3G handsets would reach 395 million by 2013.
Overall Mobile Penetration:
- Total mobile subscriber base in India could cross the 850 million mark by the end of 2012 and reach nearly 1 billion by the end of 2013.
- The overall mobile penetration is expected to reach 78.3 per cent in 2013 from about 30 per cent in 2008.
- In 2013, the penetration is expected to reach 142.5 per cent, 79 per cent and 15 per cent in the urban (above poverty line), rural (above poverty line) and urban (below poverty line), respectively.
The figures on mobile penetration seems to be on higher side as Gartner just recently predicted subscriber count in 2013 at 770 million.
The prediction of 275 Mn. also seems to be on the higher side as 3G would only commence from 2010 onwards, if the auction process is settled by end of 2009 itself. Earlier FICCI predicted 3G subscriber count at 89.9mn by 2013. The current appetite of 3G does not seems to be great but it is also due of lack of 3G availability across the telecom spectrum. The success of 3G in India would still hinge on affordable pricing as such VAS services are extremely price sensitive.
