Indian telecom sector is on the path to prosperous growth till 2013 at least that is what can be said through the recent research study conducted and made public by Gartner.
Future projections by Gartner :
- The Telecom sector revenues would touch $30 billion by 2013 registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5 percent between 2009-2013.
- The Telecom subscriber base is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5 percent and would cross 770 million by 2013.
- Mobile market penetration is projected to increase to 63.5 percent in 2013 from 38.7 percent in 2009.,
- The churn rate – the rate at which a subscriber switches their operator – would cross 59 percent in 2013 from 53 percent currently.
- The number of people with prepaid connections,accounting for 93 percent of the subscriber base in 2008, will continue to swell to exceed 96 percent by 2013, surpassing 740 million.
- The revenues from data services will significantly contribute to mobile services in India, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013.
Gartner further quotes,”Growth will also be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets.”
According to the a recent revised estimates by the Cellular Operators Association of India, the mobile subscriber base is expected to zoom to 1019 million by 2013.This shows the discrepancy in projection data available.
The report despite showing the bullishness in telecom sector also points out few riders.The postpaid to prepaid ratio will not see major up move as it is forecasted to exceed 29 million by 2013 just a small CAGR growth of 2.5 percent from 23 million in 2008.This could be a big dampener as it reflect the inability of Telco’s to garner post-paid users .
The introduction of 3G in future could well land a helping hand in increasing Telecom sector’s revenues.The churn rate is also not expected to shoot to a high level despite introduction of Number portability.
its well said by gartner, According to telecom experts, their is potential for total connections in the country to grow to about 100 million in the fixed line segments and 60 million in cellular segment by the end of this yea. so the target seems achievable, as far as the share of fixed line and wireless in the total connections goes, the teledensity would grow more on account of the wireless segment than fixed line.