3G & BWA: The Next Frontier, A report FICCI and BDA released a joint report on 3G & BWA yesterday at FICCI, New Delhi.
The objective of this Report is to provide an operational, on-the-ground perspective of the future of 3G and BWA services in India, and is based on extensive industry inputs from carriers, handset OEMs, network OEMs,VAS providers and policy makers.
The Highlights of the report include:
* 89.9mn 3G Subscribers (including 67.5mn handsets and 22.4 modem subscribers) by 2013
* 3G subscriber base will represent 12% of the overall wireless subscriber base contributing USD 15.8bn in service revenues in 2013.
* Annual 3G device sales are estimated to reach 81.3mn in 2013, with replacement market contributing to 52% of device sales in that year.
* 3G ARPU is projected to reach USD 18.3 by 2013 with revenues totaling USD 12.8bn in the same year. Data is expected to contribute 29% to 3G ARPU from handet users.
* The overall broadband subscriber base (including wireline,3G modem and BWA) is projected to grow to 46.1mn users by 2013 with an overall PC installed base of 75mn. Total 3G modem subscribers are expected to reach 22.4mn by 2013 with sales of 13.6mn new modems.
* WiMAX will emerge as a strong competitor for providing residential and enterprise BWA connectivity in un-served and under-served areas.Industry inputs suggest use of IEEE 802.16e standard, even for fixed applications due to lower CPE costs than 802.16d and a larger vendor ecosystem.
* The report projects a subscriber base of 10.8mn WiMAX users by 2013, growing at a CAGR of 80% from 2009.
After the release of the joint report by BDA and FICCI, 3G & BWA : The Next Frontier, there was a panel discussion on demystifying 3G and BWA, pointed out by Neeraj Roy, MD & CEO, Hungama Mobile as the 19th panel on 3G. The panel constituted:
Moderator: Mr.Sunil Jain,Associate Editor, Business Standard.
* Shri.T. K Varda Krishnan, Deputy Wireless Adviser, DOT, Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, Government of India.
* Mr. Sunil Dutt, Country Head Mobile Business, Samsung India Electronics Pvt. LTd.
* Mr. Neeraj Roy, MD & CEO, Hungama Mobile
* Mr. Randeep Raina, Head -3G Business(Sub region India), Nokia seimens Networks
* Mr. Kunal Bajaj, Managing Director, BDA Connect(India)
Sunil Dutt questions: What will drive 3G?
Neeraj Roy: India is 4th largest in internet consumption and constitutes 17% of new internet traffic, Internet will be the driving force for 3G.
Question: Do we have applications needed for 3G enabled mobile devices, if operators contemplate to offer email and other Application services?
Neeraj Roy: Application services will not be the driver for 3G adoption, ARPU for the top 9% will go up with 3G. Devices and faster network will drive the 3G,carrier should be more like a integrated media company.
Randeep Raina: The key drivers of 3G are 4, they are:
- Clarity on regulatory affairs on spectrum allocation.
- Improved speeds
- Affordability of handsets
- Affordability of Bandwidth
There’s a need for a mix of mass market model and high end market model.
Sunil Jain: Spectrum is divided into 5 blocks, 4 blocks of 5 Mhz which are being auctioned and 1 Block that is allocated to BSNL, MTNL.
Randeep Raina: 5Mhz block is good starting point but every where else there are 10Mhz+ blocks,going forward we need a roadmap.
Question: Where is higher ARPU gonna come?
Sunil Dutt: Nobody knows what’s gonna drive 3G growth or whats gonna be the killer app,but basically data is gonna drive ARPU.
Neeraj Roy: Enhanced video consumption will drive 3G and also Client/Server applications,besides SMS ,”VAS” will jump from 3% to 6% over a period of first 24 months of implementation.
The entire report can be downloaded here.