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At TIECon Delhi - Future of Internet - When will there be 200 Million Internet Users?
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Divyansh Sharma our guest blogger attended the TIECon Delhi which concluded last week and came back with some interesting insights from the panel discussion on ‘The future of internet’.
The panel included
- Sanjeev Bikhchandani, Founder, Naukri.com – Chair
- Shailesh Rao, MD, Google India
- R.Ramaraj, Sr.Advisor, Sequoia Capital Advisors
- D.Shivakumar, Vice President & General Manager, Nokia
- Mahendra Swarup, Chief Mentor, SITG
- Rohit Agarwal, CEO, techTribe - TiE Host
The panel had no presentations and was started by a direct question from Mr.Sanjeev Bikhchandani wher he asked..
When will there be 200 million internet users?
Mahendra Swarup (SITG) answered the same stating that government is putting 26 billion $ to wire up the country and get broadband into villages. Current penetration is 20-35 Million which has been growing slowly. But one day internet will follow the route as radio, magazine, tv business i.e. only a few top players will survive and penetration wont happen in regular sense of pc/computer and not really mobile either but rather something like IPTV. So tv screens will be the center for many years to come cable operatiors will play a keyrole inflection point. In china 80 million users were seen as the inflecion point and India is not very far away from 80 million users. We should get there in 18-24 months he stated.
When will Mobile/Wireless internet start happening in India?
Shivkumar (Nokia) felt that it was just a matter of time and it will happen. According to him america was no longer the center of mobile revolution as they represented only 17% of the market while 52% of revenue for google came outside America. According to him affordable qwerty keypad enabled phones will be very useful and Its already happening. He felt that mobile internet will will happen in 4-5 years.
Google MD Shailesh Rao on the future of internet
Shailesh said that google had seen a great response from Indian businesses but he was still concerned about entrepreneurship and innovation. He felt that the thing that will really drive the steepest slope will be next set of services that will address what Indian customers really want. And there are many such needs which remain unaddressed.
Mahendra Swarup on Horizontal Portals
He stated that back when he was in indiatimes horizontals was the way to go but many horizontals have come to rediscover themselves over the years and the ones which are still around are now more of an email provider. According to him most horizontals probably wont exist in next couple of years.
Ramaraj Of Sequoia On Driving Factors for Internet Growth
Ramaraj (Sequoia) stated that internet was driven by a single common factor in most countries i.e. Online Gaming did it for china while ecommerce did it for europe. He felt that India needed to find that one thing that drives people to the internet be it goverment, education or something else. He felt that applications like tutorvista had that potential.
The Panel On Localization Of Content
Shailesh Rao (Google) felt that language isnt much of a barrier and can be dealt with but we need more people to make the bets on this space and he had a message to enterpreneurs that India can serve as a model for emerging world and felt that the successes in India will be replicated worldwide.
Sanjeev Bikhchandani (Naukri) stated that cable had limited penetration till it was English but once it became Local it exploded. He felt a similar trend would be seen in the internet as well.
Mahendra Swarup (SITG) felt that language wont be not such a constrain now but it really has to go to 150 to 200 million users and then those users content and language would be very critical. He felt that regional content would play a big role, expecially in mobile.
What is future of Social Media & Web 2.0?
Rohit Agarwal (Techtribe) felt that social networks in india havent taken off as expected. According to him people dont need internet to be social. Time was also a key issue as a person is only left with 2 hours a day. He felt penetration is a huge issue and there is still no kiler app that would drive people to internet. According to Rohit Education, healthcare seemed like promising sectors.
Would it be difficult to raise funding?
Ramaraj (Sequoia) felt that recession might be a great time to build a great company. Though valuations will be lower and second round funding may be small but money is available. Companies would nonetheless need to be more cautious. He felt that money maybe a problem in the short term.
Panel Discusses 3G, Wimax, Search and Cybercafe’s role in Internet Growth of the future.
According to Shivkumar (Nokia) 3G will be huge and would be driven by entertainment content and not enterprise content. 3g will enable both 1 to 1 billion as well as 1 on 1 in future.
Ramraj (Sequoia) said that wireless is what we are waiting for and last mile wimax is what will make a difference.
Shailesh Rao (Google) said that not enough innovation happening in search space but he hoped to see more as they themselves were trying to do a number of things. He felt there is always going to be room for innovation and opportunities and there is more in front of us, than behind.
Mahendra Swarup (SITG) stated that it was difficult to say if someone can distrupt google as google is promoting innovation around their technology and young enterprenurs who are planning to start would do well if they build around the google ecosystem.
Ramaraj (Sequoia) pointed out that cyber cafes still acount for around 47% of access. There is lots of competition which has led to low pricing but not enough differentiation seen as yet. He felt there was a future in added services like LAN games, printing services which may make cyber cafe’s more viable as a business.
Shailesh Rao (Google) commented that he doesnt believe mobile devices will replace PC’s so cyber cafes will continue to play a big role.
Panel Discusses Profitability of Internet Businesses In India
Mahendra Swarup (SITG) said that any business is a function of scale and the fundamental question of penetration.
Shailesh Rao (Google) felt that business post dot com bubble burst had created these rules of success
- Expertise wins
- Scale is the king
- You dont need that many people
- Launching 10 ok things does not equal launching one great thing
Potential of Mcommerce & Mobile Payments
Mahendra Swarup felt that business of ecommerce and mobile has lived up to its potential. He felt that ecommerce is a large opportunity still underexploited as there is lack of infrastucture and logistics.
On mobile payments future Shivkumar (Nokia) said that ‘when’ is not known but we have 7 atms per 100 000 people and 14 banks per 1,00,000 people and 25000 phones per 1,00,000 people so mobile is going to evolve as a mode of payment there are concerns by banking authories and by consumers regarding security that still has to be addressed.
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It was a nice post. Wireless services such as wireless internet services is penetrating into the remote areas. In the mean while Govt. helping the situation is very good consequence.
I think the question should have been ” When will we have 200 million Broadband Internet sunscribers ” and not just Internet subscribers. Because if we want the net economy to grow we need broadband subscribers . And the biggest growth will come when we see 3G or Wimax roll out. That will put the power in your hands and can be really the takeoff that the Internet industry requires to leapfrog to higher internet usage. Reliance Communications really ushered in the mobile revoultion with their schemes and we are waiting for someone to do the same with the Broadband industry
I was talking about this to Harshil at our panel as well.. the pain point in Indian digital media or internet medium to be specific is not so much about the lakh of huge numbers as much as it is about online commerce conversion.. it is like all the biggies have given up on increasing the percentage conversion of online sales to online users when honestly that is where the opportunity really is instead of waiting for triple digit million users or better internet connectivity.. I can write a whole post on this to be honest…
Another thing that I don’t quite agree with is social media and web 2.0 often being compared to just social networking… in every panel the moment social media is spoken about all we here is orkut facebook and the other crappy indian social networks that don’t even know why they are on the web…
I agree with Shaliesh on entrepreneurship and innovation. And, then, it was also pointed out that we need to know what India really wants.
Do we really know what India really wants? For a general consumer, Time spent by consumer on internet is a constraint and also the internet accessibility (mainly at office). And, time will always remain constraint till India as a whole grow both in terms of social and economical mind set.
Having said that, we might want to look at utility service portal which could be of real use in day-to-day life. Thus, today, portals in the area of travel, healthcare(pointed by Rohit and others) have higher chances of success.
cheers